Economic growth forecasts

In the portal, I accessed Library & Resources., then clicked on databases & e-books. I selected Countries & Cultures and then the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). I opted for Middle East/Africa and chose 3 Gulf countries, Bahrain, Qatar & the UAE. For each country, I selected the economic growth forecast. I then printed out the 3 reports, producing a word document of 1,034 words. This is the summary.

Economic growth in Bahrain will average 4.2% in 2010-11. Expansion in 2009 was only 3.1%, according to government data, due to lower regional growth and a decline in foreign investment and trade flows. Unemployment will rise in 2010. The number of Bahraini nationals in employment fell by 1% in the first quarter of 2010 but overall employment, including expatriates, rose by 1.2%. Government spending will slow in 2011. Investment will be underpinned by government spending in 2010 but, with global recovery, foreign investment should rise in 2011.

Qatar avoided recession in 2008-09 and the economy will expand in 2010-11 because of two things: first, the global recovery and, secondly, the near doubling of LNG production. The main concern is the fall in demand for LNG in Asia and the USA, and profit margins will be squeezed, ‘but Qatar’s dominant position in the market and low production costs should enable it to maintain export volumes’ (http://country.eiu.com=467427431&country=Qatar). The Al Shaheen oil field will expand and the Pearl GTL (gas to liquids) will boost growth in 2011. High government spending on education, health and transport will be maintained. Population growth, including immigration, will support domestic demand. Real GDP growth will surge to 19999.4% in 2010, dropping to 15.9% in 2011.

Real GDP growth in the UAE, by contrast, will average only 4.6% 2010-14, lower than the previous 5 years but ‘respectable by international comparison’. Oil will not be the only driver of growth. Dubai will shift focus from real estate and financial services to ‘building trade and tourism' (hhtp://country.eiu.com-167494001&country=UnitedArabEmirates). Strong government spending, especially in Abu Dhabi, and improved consumer confidence will boost private consumption. The Abu Dhabi 202=30 plan aims to develop the emirate as a manufacturing hub, with the Khalifa Port & Industrial Zone providing essential infrastructure. A virtually tax-free environment and good infrastructure will lead to foreign workers returning after a fall in the expatriate population in 2009. Even if oil prices failed to reach forecast levels, ‘the Abu Dhabi government would be able to use its vast overseas investments to sustain public spending’ (http://country.eiu.com=1674940018country=UnitedArab Emirates).

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Bibliography

http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=467427431&country=Qatar http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1817422766&country=Bahrain
http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=167494001&country=United Arab Emirates